Laying The Underdog

A strategy which should be applied in matches where the non-favorite (underdog) team scored first. It’s possible to take advantage of these situations and profit from placing two lay bets, one on a draw and one on the underdog’s win.

This strategy should be applied in matches where a lay bet was placed on a draw, but the underdog team was the first to score. In such a situation, this is what you should do:

  • Place a back bet on a draw at the current odds, with a stake equal to 50% of the initial lay bet;
  • Place a lay bet on the team which scored, staking an amount equal to 75% of the initial bet.

This way, the liability is reduced and you can make a profit in case the favorite team wins the match.
Criteria:This strategy can become very lucrative when it’s applied in the right situations. You should use the Traderline statistics to analyse how the teams have been performing in the latest matches, as well as the number of draws that occurred in matches between the two teams. You should look for matches with few draws.

As a reference point, look for matches where the odds for one of the teams are lower than 2.00, while the other team’s odds are higher than 4.00. The odd for the draw should not be higher than 3.75.
Stake Amount:The first bet’s stake is up to each investor to decide. However, the second bet should amount to about 50% of the first one. As for the third bet, it should be worth about 75% of the first bet.

Example:Let’s say that the odd for a lay bet on a draw is 3.75 and an investor chooses to place a lay bet worth £20. In this case, the respective liability will be of £55, with a chance of winning £20, in case another team wins the match.

When the underdog team scores, the odd for a bet on a draw drops slightly, to 3,65. In this case, you will bet 50% of the stake of the initial bet, meaning that you will place a £10 back bet on a draw.

Then, you place a lay bet on the underdog team which just scored, at an odd of, for example, 1.90, with a stake equal to 75% of the initial bet’s stake. That is, you place a lay bet worth £15 on the underdog.

With these bets, you end up with the following:

  • A lay bet worth £20 on the draw at an odd of 3.75. This corresponds to a liability of £55 and a potential profit of £20.
  • A back bet worth £10 on the draw at an odd of 3.65. This corresponds to a liability of £10 and a potential profit of £26.50.
  • A lay bet worth £15 on the underdog at an odd of 1.90. This corresponds to a liability of £13.50 and a potential profit of £15.

If the favorite team scores and draws the match, you can bring your loss down to £13.5. If the favorite team manages to win the match, you will profit £25.

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